We are at the cusp of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Over the next 30 to 50 years, we will likely experience profound changes in our way of serving our purposes. Like the past three industrial revolutions, the fourth industrial revolution will likely witness radically different innovations. These innovations will unfold as Creative waves of destruction, often disrupting incumbent firms and jobs. For example, steam engine technology-based innovations changed the way we powered textile mills, propelled ships, and also offered locomotion to railway wagons. Similarly, the invention of the electric light bulb brought profound changes in our way of getting light. During the 3rd industrial revolution, we observed significant changes in office work, service delivery, and manufacturing. Like the past three industrial revolutions, artificially intelligent machines promise to unfold creative waves of destruction. Unfortunately, AI hype evaporates the Momentum of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Industrial revolutions progress as waves of Creative Destruction
The progression of the industrial economy witnessed three major discontinuities. They drew demarcation lines, giving names of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd industrial revolutions. Unfolding of waves of innovations creates discontinuity, often causing destructions to existing products and our ways of executing tasks.
The steam engine powered the first industrial revolution
The invention of the steam engine in the 17th century triggered the first industrial revolution. For example, over several centuries, people used water wheels or wind power to power factories or propel ships. The invention of steam engines led to Innovation in getting energy. Steam engine technology was subsequently harnessed to unfold creative waves, destroying ways of getting energy and also water wheels or merchant ships propelled by wind power. Therefore, the invention of the steam engine and innovations around it drew a sharp demarcation line, giving birth to the first industrial revolution.
Second industrial revolution
The 2nd industrial revolution emerged due to discontinuity created by several technologies like electricity, light bulb, internal combustion engine, and electric motors. A series of innovations around these technologies unfolded, causing destruction to products and ways of Getting jobs done. These creative waves also caused disruptions to existing firms and jobs. For example, the internal combustion engine-based automobile made overwhelming changes in transportation. It also disrupted the horse wagon industry. Summarily, the electric light bulb brought profound changes to our lifestyle. The internal combustion engine and electric generators, as well as motors, restructured industrial activities. As opposed to the artisans’ approach to making industrial products, production lines were introduced. The 2nd industrial revolution also witnessed the emergence of electricity-based innovations like Radio, Television, Audio recorders, and many more.
The invention of the Transistor started the 3rd industrial revolution
Over the last 70 years, we have witnessed the unfolding of creative waves of destruction around computing and communication technologies. However, the transistor is the core technology, invented in 1947. In this process, typewrites have been replaced with computers and printers; physical mail delivery was replaced with e-mail, and cyclostyle machines were replaced with photocopiers. He also witnessed the emergence of robots in taking over dull, dirty, and dangerous jobs from humans in factories.
Innovations around this technology core kept growing and unfolding, causing destruction to existing products. Consequentially, our old ways of getting jobs done are replaced by new ones. Along with the destruction of products like film-based cameras or portable video recorders, some firms also experienced disruptive effects. For example, RCA, Kodak, DEC, Seagate, or Nokia suffered from disruption. They failed to switch as the right moment to emerging Waves of Innovation with the potential of causing creative destruction.
The emergence of the fourth industrial revolution
For drawing a demarcation line between the 3rd and fourth industrial revolution, we need the unfolding of creative waves of destructions for offering substitutions. New products must replace existing ones, and offer a dramatic change in getting our jobs done. Incremental enhancements of existing products will not qualify to fuel the fourth industrial revolution. The advancement in sensors, computational processors, wireless connectivity, and algorithms is creating a new technology core. This technology core will enable us to imitate human beings’ intelligence in physical machines. However, we already made significant progress in automating the memorization, searching, and computational capability of humans in machines. For example, a simple Excel sheet has automated many complex computational algorithms. Similarly, a $10 pen drive pr free 15 GB cloud space can memorize dozens of books.
Contrary to basic cognitive capability, cyber-physical systems will be able to sense, perceive the situation, and act like humans. Subsequently, human beings will be removed from many jobs, such as driving automobiles, offering elderly care services, or performing household chores. Hence, we will move to the era of the fourth industrial revolution.
Technology cores drive the industrial revolution
A set of technologies underpins every industrial revolution. The steam engine powered the first industrial revolution. The second one got a boost from multiple technologies. Although transistor is the core technology driving the 3rd industrial revolution, it manifested as multiple core technologies. To drive the fourth industrial revolution, we need a unique technology core to fuel creative waves of destruction. In fact, like in the past, we have not witnessed any remarkable invention. However, further advancement of technologies driving the 3rd industrial revolution, and their fusion will form a new technology core. This technology core is known as artificial intelligence or AI technology. We are in the belief that this AI technology core will make dump machines artificially intelligent, creating a series of waves of creative destruction.
The fourth industrial revolution depends on Artificial Intelligence and Cyber-physical Systems
The advancement of the fourth industrial revolution depends on the capability of AI technology core to innovate cyber-physical systems. The focus is on imitating human beings’ cognitive capability into physical machines. To get clarity, let’s look into human beings’ cognitive capability. This first one is about the possession of Codified Knowledge and skill. Human beings earn it through education and training. Progress has already been made to automate this capability. Through experience, human beings also gather knowledge and skill, in tacit form, though. It’s far harder to automate Tacit capability than making machines automate codified capacity. Nevertheless, progress is taking place to automate tacit capability.
Human beings have the capability in the 3rd form. As opposed to going to educational and training institutions or gaining experience, they get them by being born as innate abilities. So far, we have classified them into four categories: i. cognitive, ii. physical, iii. sensory and iv. psychomotor. Human beings have 52 innate abilities in these four categories. They apply many of them, of course subconsciously, in executing even a simple task, like softly pouring tea in a cup.
It’s extremely difficult, perhaps not impossible, for existing AI technology to imitate humans’ innate abilities in cyber-physical systems. Furthermore, unless and until such imitation exceeds humans’ innate abilities, those innovations will not succeed in creating any appeal, let alone unfolding a creative wave of destruction or causing disruption.
Progression of autonomous vehicles and Humanoid robot stalls—AI hype evaporates
With great interest, people were observing the uprising of two great AI innovations. These are cyber-physical systems. The first one is Honda’s ASIMO. In 1986, Honda undertook an R & D program to develop humanoid robots to offer service, particularly for older people. There has been a large, as well as growing, commercial opportunity of delivering elderly care services with robots. Despite demonstrating many attractive performances, Honda’s R&D team faced extreme difficulties in imitating human-like innate abilities in ASIMO.
Although human caregivers apply them subconsciously, they are highly important for ASIMO to have to qualify for the job of elderly care service delivery. More importantly, Honda found it surmountable to automate them. Consequentially, Honda management gave up the R&D program, after 32 years at an approximate cost of $500 million, for keep trying to imitate human-like innate abilities in ASIMO. Of course, the success of making ASIMO in delivering elderly care had the potential to fuel a creative wave of destruction in elderly care service delivery.
Before roll-out, autonomous vehicle progression has stalled
The second one is about autonomous vehicles. Many of us believe it as a model AI innovation for upgrading existing dump machines into the Cyber-Physical System. Demonstrations of initial progress created hope as well as despair among many of us. People started to get apprehensive of massive job losses due to the uprising of autonomous vehicles. Even think tanks, media outlets, and academic research centers started predictions of massive jobs. They were often referring to the uprising of autonomous vehicles as creative waves of destruction, not only driving jobs but also on the car ownership model.
So far, this AI possibility has consumed $80 billion in R&D investment. Of course, some progress has been demonstrated. Nevertheless, the autonomous capability is far from acceptable to offer us a better alternative to a human driver. The difficulty to imitate humans’ innate abilities needed for driving has apparently stalled further progress of autonomous vehicles.
It appears that AI’s potential to power a series of creative waves of destruction through the cyber-physical system is premature. Hype, as opposed to reality, compelled to believe that the fourth industrial revolution was about to unfold due to the unfolding of artificially intelligent machines. AI technology deserves further improvement. Perhaps, the existing approach of imitating human intelligence in robots is not strong enough. We need to dig down science and invent a better method to fuel the unfolding of creative destructions for taking us in the fourth industrial revolution.
